Guy's Ezine 139 Is the end of Microsoft nigh? - Not yet!
If Microsoft is about to decline, then firstly, I would like to know; secondly,
I would like to learn more about its successor. On the other hand, if
Microsoft is about to enter a golden Longhorn generation, then I will happily
embrace this improved technology of Vista on the desktop and with Server 2008 in
the back-office.
To take an extremely long, and an extremely cynical view, everything starts to
die as soon as it's born. If we take a different slant on lifespan, every
dynasty comes to an end sooner or later, for example, back in the 19th century
the Carnegie Steel Company; from the 1930s film industry, RKO Pictures (King
Kong, Citizen Kane), and nearer to the present day, Novel Netware and
WordPerfect. All these once great companies eventually fell into decline
and were replaced by more successful products.
The key to answering the conundrum, 'Is the end of Microsoft nigh?' is to
analyse the evidence dispassionately. In particular, to avoid the extremes
of 'hate Microsoft', or 'love Microsoft'. Let us take a look at
Microsoft's present domination of the client desktop and the network servers;
for me the burning question is who, and what are going to supersede them?
The laws of nature have nothing to do with fairness, moral superiority (what
ever that is), they have everything to do with adapting to the environment, and
the case of computer operating systems, giving people what they want.
What are the alternatives to Microsoft?
In the early stages of a new development, it's hard to distinguish between a
'package' that is about to start a new dynasty from one which heading up an
evolutionary blind alley. Could it be that a species of Linux is going to
oust Microsoft's Windows Server 2008? Is star office going to replace
Office 2007 or will OpenSUSE 10.3 (GNOME) replace XP and Vista.
Alternatively, will Microsoft continue to see-off this competition until a
completely different way of computing establishes dominance? What could
that alternative technology be? All I can imagine is a future where
instead of running local machines, each of us connects to a huge battery of web
servers and run our email, word processing and spreadsheets across the internet
using non-Microsoft technology. For this to happen we would need complete
trust in the connections, and the security of our data. I cannot see
people buying into that model for really sensitive documents. And so the
whole idea begins to crumble in my mind.
After some thought, my conclusion is that we are in for another cycle of
Microsoft dominance. Vista on the desktop and Windows Server 2008 in the
back-office. My problem is not with Microsoft, I have loved their products
for the last 25 years. My problem is wanting to spot Microsoft's successor
at the earliest possible stage. When I do I will let you know, until then
I will happy to use, and to play with the combination of Vista and Server 2008.
Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it
The one position that I have difficulty understanding is those who say they are
going to stick with Windows Server 2003 an XP. Incidentally, it's strange
how people holding this position suddenly sing the praises of XP, when before
Vista appeared, they rubbished the XP operating system.
I beg your indulgence to digress, I would like to give a motorbike example
why we should learn from the mistakes of history. And why the Luddite's
strategy rarely if ever wins. True bikers in the USA have always had the
wonderful Harley Davidson, we English used to ride the superb Triumph Bonneville or
the Norton Dominator. One day in the 1960s Japanese companies such as
Honda, Suzuki and Kawasaki, produced bikes which were faster, more reliable and
had better handling. As this revolution unfolded English 'Bikers',
'Greasers' and 'Rockers' said they would sooner eat dirt and wear 'Mod' suits,
than ride a Jap machine. Two years later they were all riding Suzuki GS
bikes.
If we return to more recent times, then between 1992 and 1998 we saw the
evolution from Windows for Workgroups and Lan Manager (or Novell Netware) to
Windows 98 and NT4. People who made that transition saw huge benefits.
The problem is that ten years later, investing similar time and money on an
upgrade from XP and W2K3 to Vista and Server 2008, doesn't produce the same
degree of benefit.
Nevertheless, because Vista and Server 2008 work so well together, it will
gradually become obvious that this team are superior to XP and Server 2003.
Consequently, people will eventually bite the financial bullet and make another
upgrade, just as they advanced from Windows 98 with NT4, to XP with Windows
Server 200x.
Conclusion
My reading of the market place is that many organizations have been reluctant to
upgrade from XP to Vista, but once Windows Server 2008 is launched, a trickle of
people will switch to the faster and more secure system. By 2009 the
trickle will be come a steady stream. One day we will wake up in 2010 and
Server 2008 and Vista will seem like the norm and Windows Server 2003 with XP
will look old-fashioned. If this prediction is true, then I need to master
the new product, if not then I need to invest my energy in a different
technology - if I could only find what that was.
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